Italy: Industrial output unexpectedly rises in January
March 19, 2013
In January, industrial output rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% over the previous month. The result contrasted the revised 0.2% drop recorded in December (previously reported: +0.4%) and market expectation of a 0.2% contraction. The unexpected increase was, however, largely the result of a change in the base year of the industrial production index. That said, the monthly expansion reflected positive growth in manufacturing, whereas mining and quarrying as well as electricity, gas and water deteriorated compared to December.
On an annual basis, industrial output dropped a working-day adjusted 3.6%, which represents an improvement compared to December's 7.4% decline (previously reported: -6.6% year-on-year) but marks a 17th consecutive contraction. As a result, the trend improved, with annual average growth in industrial production stepping up from minus 6.5% in December to minus 6.3% in January.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see industrial production contracting 2.1% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2014, panellists expect industrial output to expand 1.5%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions