Indonesia: GDP growth broadly stable in Q4 2012
February 7, 2013
In the fourth quarter, GDP grew 6.1% over the same quarter the year before. The figure was a notch down from both the 6.2% increase observed in the third quarter and market expectations, which had anticipated GDP expanding at the same Q3's pace.
The Q4 reading reflected how a deterioration in the external sector was nearly offset by stronger growth in domestic demand. Private consumption decelerated from a 5.6% expansion in the third quarter to a 5.4% rise in the fourth. In addition, fixed investment rose 7.3% in the fourth quarter (Q3: +9.8% year-on-year). Meanwhile, government consumption contracted for a second consecutive quarter (Q4: -3.3% yoy; Q3: -2.8% yoy). That said, a positive shift in inventories contributed to the improvement in domestic demand.
On the external side, exports rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter, contrasting the 2.6% drop observed in the third quarter. Simultaneously, imports swung from a 0.2% fall in the third quarter to a 6.8% expansion in the fourth. As imports outpaced exports, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth deteriorated from minus 0.9 percentage points in the third quarter to minus 3.3 percentage points in the fourth.
In the full year 2012, GDP expanded a strong 6.2%, slightly down from the 6.5% expansion recorded in 2011 but in line with FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast projections. The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 6.3% and 6.7% in 2013.