India: Exports contract again in March, fall just short of target for FY 2013/2014
April 11, 2014
The trade deficit reached a five-month low in March, totaling USD 10.5 billion, which was just below the USD 10.4 shortfall recorded in the same month last year. In the 12 months up to March, the trade deficit totaled USD 138.5 billion, which marked an improvement over the USD 189.5 billion shortfall seen in the same period of last year.
March's result reflected a contraction in both imports and exports. Overseas sales contracted 3.2% over the same month last year, which was up from the 3.7% contraction recorded in February. Imports decreased 2.1% in March (February: -17.1% year-on-year). This marked the softest pace in seven months following six months of double-digit contractions, which were driven by the strong government-imposed curb on gold imports.
The 12-month sum of exports up to March totaled USD 312.4 billion. Accordingly, India's overseas sales came in 3.9% short of its export target of USD 325 billion for FY 2013/2014.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 9.0% in FY 2014/2015, reaching USD 351 billion. In FY 2015/2016, the panel sees exports expanding 12.4% and reaching USD 395 billion.