Greece: GDP growth meets preliminary estimate
December 9, 2013
In Q3, the economy contracted 3.0% over the same period last year according to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) on 9 December. The result met the preliminary estimate and was an improvement over the 3.7% contraction recorded in the second quarter. Q3's result, which represents the softest contraction in more than three years, was led by rebounding growth in total investment.
On the domestic side of the economy, total investment rebounded from a 13.7% contraction in the second quarter to a 12.5% expansion in the third quarter. Fixed investment fell 12.6% in Q3 (Q2: -11.0% year-on-year). In addition, private consumption fell 8.1% (Q2: -6.4% yoy), while government consumption expanded 0.1% (Q2: -5.7% yoy).
Exports of goods and services rose 5.7% in Q3, up from the 0.9% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, imports rebounded from an 11.5% contraction in Q2 to a 2.3% expansion in Q3. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell from plus 3.5 percentage points in the second quarter to plus 1.1 percentage points in the third quarter. EL.STAT has not provided seasonally-adjusted figures since Q1 2011 due to methodological issues.
The government expects the economy to shrink 4.0% this year before picking up and expanding 0.6% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy contracting 4.7% in 2013, which is unchanged over last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel expects a milder contraction of 0.8%, which is also unchanged compared to last month's estimate.
Author: Dirina Mançellari, Senior Economist