Germany: Trade surplus narrows in November
January 7, 2013
In November, the seasonally adjusted trade balance recorded a EUR 14.6 billion surplus, which came in slightly below the EUR 14.8 billion observed in October. In addition, the reading undershot market expectations, which had the trade surplus at EUR 15.0 billion.
Exports contracted 3.4% in November in seasonally and working-day adjusted terms over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.2% increase recorded in October and exceeded market expectations that had exports sliding 0.5%. Imports followed suit and declined 3.7% over the previous month (October: +2.9% month-on-month).
Compared to the same month the previous year, shipments abroad swung from a 10.5% expansion in October to a flat reading in November. As a result, in the 12-month up to November, exports increased 4.3% to EUR 1.1 trillion, exceeding the EUR 1.0 trillion level for second consecutive month. The print, nonetheless, marked a slowdown over the 5.0% expansion registered in October.
The Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) expects exports to have grown 4.0% in 2012. For 2013, the Federation sees export growth strengthening and expand 5% to reach EUR 1.16 trillion.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist