Germany: Trade surplus hits record-high in September
November 7, 2013
In September, the seasonally and calendar-adjusted trade balance recorded a EUR 18.8 billion surplus. The result was above both the EUR 15.8 billion surplus observed in August and the EUR 16.0 billion the market had expected. The previous record surplus was EUR 18.7 billion in September 2007.
The trade surplus widened in September as exports increased 1.7% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms (August: +1.0% month-on-month). The reading overshot market expectations of a 0.6% increase and marked the fastest pace of expansion since January. Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly declined 1.9% in September, contrasting both 0.1% expansion registered in August and market expectations of a 0.4% rise.
Compared to the same month last year, shipments abroad rose 3.2% in September (August: -5.7% year-on-year). In contrast, imports decreased 0.7% annually in the same month (August: -2.9% yoy).
Sluggish global trade prompted the Federation of German Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA) to revise Germany's exports forecasts for this year. The BGA now expects overseas sales to grow nearly 1.0%. The estimate is down from its previous 3.0% expansion.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist