Estonia: Economy rebounds in 2010
February 11, 2011
The Estonian economy grew 6.6% in the fourth quarter over the same period last year, according to the flash estimate released on 11 February by Statistics Estonia (SE). The quarterly reading represented an acceleration compared to the 5.0% increase recorded in Q3 and beat market analysts' expectations of a 4.7% rise. According to the press release, the main growth driver in Q4 was manufacturing, which alone accounted for a 4.0 percentage-point contribution. Based on monthly data, fourth quarter industrial output expanded 37.1% over the same period last year, which represented an acceleration over the 26.2% rise recorded in the third quarter. Consensus Forecast participants anticipate industrial output to grow _% in 2011 and _% in 2012. A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the improvement suggested by annual figures, as GDP rose for the fifth consecutive quarter, expanding 2.3% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms (Q3: +0.7% quarter-on-quarter). Full details of the national accounts data will be published on 11 March. As a result of the strong growth recorded in the final quarters, the Estonian economy was able to rebound from a 13.9% contraction in 2009 to expand 3.1% in 2010, overshooting the Bank of Estonia's projection of a 2.5% expansion. This year, the Bank expects GDP growth to accelerate to 4.2%.