Croatia: GDP drops at slower pace in Q1
June 10, 2013
In the first quarter, GDP contracted 1.5% over the same quarter last year, according to detailed figures released by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics on 10 June. The result, which was in line with the 29 May flash estimate, marks an improvement over the 2.3% contraction tallied in the previous quarter but represents, nonetheless, a sixth consecutive quarter of declining economic activity.
Domestic demand drove the improvement witnessed in the first quarter, whereas the external sector deteriorated compared to the previous quarter. Private consumption fell 3.0% over the same quarter the year before, up from the 4.2% decline observed in the previous quarter, while government spending expanded 0.3% (Q4 2012: -2.0% year-on-year). Moreover, gross fixed capital formation fell 2.3%, which marks an improvement compared to the 4.9% drop seen in Q4.
On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services fell 4.9% in the first quarter, contrasting the 3.2% rise seen in Q4, while imports contracted 5.6% (Q4: -1.6% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 1.6 percentage points in the fourth quarter to 0.8 percentage points in the first.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation will end 2013 at 2.9%, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month's forecast. In 2014, the panel sees inflation at 2.5%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions