Argentina: President Fernandez likely to win presidential elections in first round
October 6, 2011
Just ahead of the 23 October presidential elections, incumbent president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner remains the clear frontrunner in the election polls. Surveys conducted since Fernandez's announcement to run for office gave her more than 40% of the vote. The trend actually improved in more recent polls, with intentions to vote for Fernandez ranging from 51.0%, according to consulting firm OPSM, to 55.4%, according to a poll by Equis. Surprisingly, polls identify Hermes Binner of the Socialist Party (PS, Partido Socialista) and current governor of the Santa Fe province as the most likely runner-up, with intentions to vote hovering around 15%. Binner surpasses Ricardo Alfonsin of the Radical Civic Union (UCR, Union Civica Radical), who was ranked as Kirchner's main opponent in surveys preceding August's primary elections. If such a margin is achieved and Fernandez secures at least 40% of voters' support, there will be no need for a run-off vote. According to the electoral law, candidates can win elections directly in the first round if they win more than 45% of the votes or, alternatively, 40% of the votes with a 10% advantage over the second most popular candidate.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions