Argentina: Inflation stable for a fourth consecutive month
July 19, 2011
In June, consumer prices rose 0.71% over the previous month, broadly in line with the 0.74% price increase registered in May and the 0.73% increase tallied in June last year. As a result, annual headline inflation remained stable for a fourth consecutive month at 9.7%, the lowest level since March 2010. Official inflation data published by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC) continue to be met with suspicion ever since a controversial change in the methodology to measure price variations was implemented two years ago. Allegations that INDEC data may be manipulated by the government have been repeatedly denied by the local authorities. In addition, in March the government began issuing fines against a number of economic consultancy firms over the publication of inflation estimates differing from INDEC's, further raising doubts about the validity of official inflation data. In fact, official inflation figures are less than half the level of actual inflation estimates of independent analysts' estimates. Consumers share the more realistic assessment of inflation made by private analysts. According to a survey from Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) conducted in July, households believe that consumer prices will increase 25% over the next 12 months, which was in line with results from June's survey.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions