Argentina: GDP slows in Q3
December 20, 2013
In the third quarter, GDP grew 5.5% over the same period of the previous year, marking a notable deceleration over the 8.3% expansion recorded in Q2. The deceleration in Q3 was driven by a deterioration in domestic demand, which more than offset an improvement in the external sector. Private consumption added 8.3% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was down from the 9.2% increase recorded in Q2. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment slowed to a 6.1% growth rate in Q3 after having recorded a strong 16.2% expansion in Q2.
Exports of goods and services slowed to 2.6% (Q2: +4.4% year-on-year) and imports rose 5.5% (Q2: +21.3% yoy). As a result of the deceleration in imports, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth rose from minus 2.2 percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.5 percentage points in Q3.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the slowdown seen in the year-on-year figures as GDP fell 0.2% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting the 2.2% increase recorded in Q2.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.7% in 2014, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. In 2015, panelists expect the economy to grow 2.5%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions