Argentina: GDP expands at slowest pace in more than two years
June 15, 2012
In the first quarter, GDP rose 5.2% over the same period last year. The reading represents a deceleration compared to the 7.3% increase recorded in the previous quarter but came in broadly in line with last month's LatinFocus Consensus Forecast of a 5.0% expansion. In addition, the result marks the slowest expansion since the last quarter of 2009. The moderation was driven by a deceleration in domestic demand, as the contribution to growth from the external sector improved compared to the previous quarter. Total consumption added 7.3% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was below the 9.2% increase recorded in Q4 2011. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment increased 2.8% in Q1, which was notably below the 8.0% rise recorded in Q4 2011. Exports of goods and services grew 4.2% (Q4 2011: +7.1% year-on-year), while imports added a meagre 1.4% (Q4 2011: +9.8% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth swung from minus 0.6 percentage points in Q4 2011 to plus 0.3 percentage points in Q1, turning positive for the first time since the last quarter of 2009. A quarter-on-quarter analysis does not corroborate the moderation seen in annual figures, as GDP expanded 0.89% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, up from the 0.54% increase registered in the fourth quarter.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions