Argentina: GDP accelerates in Q4 amid strong domestic demand
March 15, 2013
In the fourth quarter, GDP growth rose 2.1% over the same period the previous year, marking an improvement over the 0.7% expansion recorded in Q3.
The faster expansion was driven by an improvement in domestic demand, which more than compensated for a deterioration in the external sector compared to the previous quarter. Total consumption added 4.6% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was above the 2.7% increase recorded in Q3. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment fell 1.9% in Q4, which, nonetheless, represented an improvement over the 3.5% drop seen in Q3.
Exports of goods and services dropped 12.5% (Q3: -7.1% year-on-year), while imports contracted 2.1% (Q3: -5.8% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth fell from zero percentage points in Q3 to minus 1.2 percentage points in Q4.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the acceleration suggested by the annual figures, as GDP rose 1.3% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, which was above the 0.8% increase registered in the third quarter.
In the full year 2012, the economy expanded 1.9%, which was in line with LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panellists' expectations and marked a strong deceleration compared to the 8.9% increase recorded in 2011. Panellists see GDP expanding 3.3% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. In 2014, panellists expect the economy to grow 2.9%.
Author: Armando Ciccarelli, Head of Data Solutions