Current Account in Turkey
Turkey - Current Account
Current account balance records fourth consecutive monthly surplus in November
The current account balance recorded a USD 1.0 billion surplus in November, down from October’s revised USD 2.7 billion surplus (previously reported: USD 2.8 billion) but a marked turnaround from the USD 4.5 billion deficit observed in the same month last year. After deteriorating in annual terms for a prolonged period due to economic overheating, the current account balance has improved markedly since June due to the weaker lira and softer domestic demand.
November’s figure was underpinned by another goods surplus, on the back of depressed consumer spending and improved price competitiveness for Turkey’s exports. Moreover, the trade surplus in services broadened year-on-year to USD 1.5 billion, supported by greater tourism inflows.
On the financing front, there were USD 2.4 billion of net inflows in November, following net outflows in August-October, reflecting greater FX stability and reduced political uncertainty. November’s reading was driven by direct investment and portfolio inflows, and a reduction in banks’ currency and deposits held abroad. The current account surplus, coupled with capital inflows, led the Central bank to accumulate international reserves.
Turkey Current Account Balance Forecast
The current account is set to slip back into deficit this year, although as a percentage of GDP the shortfall is forecast to be the smallest in a decade due to suppressed domestic demand and the weak lira supporting exports. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the current account deficit at 2.5% of GDP in 2019 and 3.3% of GDP in 2020.
Turkey - Current Account Data
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-6.7||-4.7||-3.7||-3.8||-5.6|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Turkey Current Account Chart
Source: Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||15.52||-0.09 %||Jan 16|
|Exchange Rate||5.34||-0.85 %||Jan 16|
|Stock Market||95,411||1.41 %||Jan 16|
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January 16, 2019
At its monetary policy meeting on 16 January, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 24.00% for the third consecutive meeting. The Bank’s decision to keep rates at their current high level was motivated by a desire to ensure inflation remains on the downward trend observed since November.
January 14, 2019
Industrial production declined 6.5% in November in calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms, a deterioration from October’s 5.7% decrease.
January 11, 2019
The current account balance recorded a USD 1.0 billion surplus in November, down from October’s revised USD 2.7 billion surplus (previously reported: USD 2.8 billion) but a marked turnaround from the USD 4.5 billion deficit observed in the same month last year.
January 3, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.40% from the previous month in December, up from November’s 1.44% decrease, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat).
January 2, 2019
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) and IHS Markit, decreased from 44.7 in November to 44.2 in December.