Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

December 13, 2019

The economy likely lost some steam in the fourth quarter, following a stellar third quarter. Industrial production growth slowed sharply in November, while exports were subdued in October and November on weak shipments of coffee and phones. In addition, African swine fever continued to decimate pig herd numbers, which will have hurt the agricultural sector. However, economic momentum should have been healthy nonetheless, particularly compared to regional peers; tourist arrivals and retail sales surged in the first two months of Q4, boding well for the service sector. In November, the government approved hiking the minimum wage by over 5% for 2020, which should support private consumption next year without seriously threatening the country’s status as an attractive base for low-cost manufacturing.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The economy is set to remain one of ASEAN’s top performers in 2020 thanks to healthy gains in industrial production, private consumption and exports. However, global trade tensions, possible U.S. tariffs in response to Vietnam’s soaring trade surplus and domestic banking fragilities pose risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will expand 6.6% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% in 2021.

Vietnam Economy Data

Population (million)89.890.791.792.793.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,8932,0292,0332,1332,355
GDP (USD bn)170186191201220
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate3.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.2-5.7-6.4-5.7-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.754.757.159.758.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.917.716.218.415.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.33.3-0.6-0.62.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.006.506.506.506.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21,09521,38822,48522,77122,710
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,02921,19821,92922,37022,716
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.02.4-
Exports (USD billion)132150162177215
Imports (USD billion)132148166175213
Exports (annual variation in %)15.313.
Imports (annual variation in %)
International Reserves (USD)25.934.228.336.549.1
External Debt (% of GDP)38.539.341.743.347.2

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Vietnam Facts

Bond Yield3.38-0.13 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate23,1730.01 %Jan 01

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