Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

Recent data indicates the economy remains on a solid trajectory. Growth in industrial production remained strong in October, underpinned by an across-the-board expansion. Notably, the mining and quarrying sub-sector grew for the first time since December 2015, breaking 22 months of uninterrupted contractions. Exports jumped, translating into an improved trade surplus. Retail sales also rose at a double-digit rate as a surge in private-sector credit encouraged greater private consumption. Moreover, the economy continued to attract sizeable FDI inflows, which rose by more than 10% year-on-year in the January–October period. On 10 November, the National Assembly passed the 2018 socio-economic development plan. The plan aims to achieve annual growth of 6.5%–6.7% by boosting exports and investment. It also seeks to maintain macroeconomic stability by targeting a trade deficit below 3.0% of total export revenue and an inflation rate of 4.0%.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The economy should continue to expand at a strong pace into next year on the back of increased investment, bolstered by robust FDI inflows, and healthy exports. A downside risk to the economy’s financial stability, however, is the elevated level of non-performing loans in the banking sector amid a private sector credit boom and a heavy public debt burden. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.4% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% in 2019.

Vietnam Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)88.889.790.791.792.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,7541,8942,0292,0342,111
GDP (USD bn)156170184186196
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.25.46.06.76.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.95.26.19.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.95.39.39.4-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.45.97.610.07.3
Unemployment Rate3.23.63.43.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-6.6-6.3-5.0-5.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)47.951.855.158.362.4
Money (annual variation in %)18.518.917.716.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.86.01.80.64.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.36.64.20.62.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.45.33.3-0.3-0.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.007.006.506.506.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)20,84021,09521,38822,48522,771
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20,87421,02921,19821,92922,370
Current Account (% of GDP)6.04.65.10.34.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)9.37.79.40.69.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.00.40.8-4.12.1
Exports (USD billion)114133150162177
Imports (USD billion)112133149166174
Exports (annual variation in %)20.016.512.67.99.0
Imports (annual variation in %)7.918.212.311.35.0
International Reserves (USD)25.625.934.228.336.5
External Debt (% of GDP)39.538.539.341.7-  

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Vietnam Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.37-0.13 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate22,7150.01 %Dec 06
Stock Market9480.15 %Dec 06

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