Vietnam Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy began the fourth quarter on a robust footing according to available data. In October, industrial production gained steam on a stronger manufacturing sector, while retail sales expanded notably and exports surged. However, the tourism sector remained downtrodden due to the border closure. This comes after activity accelerated in Q3 thanks to a rebound in the services sector and faster growth in industry and agriculture, amid the relatively successful containment of Covid-19. On the political front, in mid-November the National Assembly approved the 2021 budget, with both revenue and expenditure down from the original estimates made for 2020 as the government looks to rein in the budget deficit. The National Assembly also approved a 6% growth target for 2021—a goal our panelists judge to be easily achievable.
Vietnam Economic GrowthGrowth should jump next year, supported by a likely strengthening of the external sector, and Vietnam should continue outperforming its regional peers. The possible reinstatement of pandemic-related domestic restrictions and a potentially prolonged downturn in the tourism sector are downside risks, however. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.3% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in 2022.
Vietnam Economy Data
5 years of Vietnam economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.38||-0.13 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||23,173||0.01 %||Jan 01|
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Vietnam Economic News
November 12, 2020
On 12 November, the National Assembly approved the 2021 state budget.
October 29, 2020
Industrial output grew 5.4% compared to the same month a year earlier in October, up from September’s 4.8% increase.
October 29, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.09% over the previous month in October, coming in below the 0.12% increase recorded in September.
October 1, 2020
Effective from 1 October, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) reduced a host of interest rates, cutting the refinancing rate from 4.50% to a record low of 4.00%.
September 29, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.12% in September over the previous month, broadly unchanged from August's 0.07% increase.