Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

May 26, 2020

Early signs from the second quarter are discouraging. In April, the manufacturing PMI fell to an all-time low amid drops in output, new orders and employment; retail sales plunged on social distancing measures; exports were down on lockdowns abroad; and visitor arrivals ground to a halt due to travel restrictions. This comes after growth slowed to an over one-decade low in Q1 due to fallout from Covid-19 and lower oil and gas output. More positively, the government has lifted restrictions on activity in recent weeks due to success in containing coronavirus: Most non-essential businesses are operating, schools are open and domestic flights have resumed. However, the 14-day mandatory quarantine for foreign visitors is still in place. These looser social distancing restrictions, coupled with fiscal and monetary support, should be beginning to aid domestic activity.

Vietnam Economic Growth

Growth is seen slumping this year. Although domestic activity has resumed, the highly-open economy will be hit by the impact of recession abroad on tourism and exports. Risks to the outlook center on the length of the coronavirus pandemic and a potentially weak recovery in external demand. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will expand 2.6% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.7% in 2021.

Vietnam Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)91.792.793.694.695.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,0852,1722,3532,5452,722
GDP (USD bn)191201220241260
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.87.17.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.37.37.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)9.49.910.28.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.87.59.410.29.1
Unemployment Rate2.32.32.22.22.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-3.7-1.2-3.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.063.761.458.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.218.415.012.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.64.72.63.55.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.62.73.53.62.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.62.83.11.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.256.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22,48522,77122,71023,19523,173
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,92922,37022,71623,02523,228
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.10.3-0.72.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.00.6-1.65.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.411.010.816.545.4
Exports (USD billion)162177215244226
Imports (USD billion)155166204227181
Exports (annual variation in %)7.99.021.813.3-7.3
Imports (annual variation in %)12.07.023.411.2-20.5
International Reserves (USD)28.336.549.155.578.3
External Debt (% of GDP)40.742.647.244.9-  

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Vietnam Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.38-0.13 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate23,1730.01 %Jan 01

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