Vietnam Economic Outlook
August 21, 2018Recent data indicates that the economy continued to grow robustly at the start of the third quarter. In July, industrial production surged due to upturns in the manufacturing and electricity supply sectors, and retail sales growth accelerated as inflation moderated and strengthened consumers’ purchasing power. On the downside, the trade balance swung into negative territory in July as imports outpaced exports, while agricultural output contracted in the month. Moreover, although the economy continued to attract a healthy stream of foreign direct investment (FDI), the rate of inflow moderated in the first seven months compared to the first six months. In other news, Moody’s upgraded Vietnam’s credit rating from Ba3 to B1 on 10 August, citing the country’s growth potential supported by improving productivity from the increasingly efficient use of labor and capital, along with its declining reliance on foreign-currency debt.
Vietnam Economic GrowthDemand for exports is expected to remain solid. This, along with the strong FDI inflows supporting export-oriented industries, should fuel another year of robust growth. Private consumption growth is expected to remain buoyant on rising incomes and rapid credit expansion. Although the speed at which credit and private debt are ballooning poses risks to financial stability in the medium-term, the government’s restricted lending to less productive industries should mitigate those risks. Headwinds also stem from negative spillover effects arising from escalating global trade tensions. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.6% in 2019.
Vietnam Economy Data
5 years of Vietnam economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.07||-0.13 %||Sep 14|
|Exchange Rate||23,249||0.01 %||Sep 14|
|Stock Market||991||0.15 %||Sep 14|
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Vietnam Economic News
September 4, 2018
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector lost steam for the second consecutive month, as reflected by a fall in the Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported by IHS Markit.
August 31, 2018
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, consumer prices rose 0.45% over the previous month in August, contrasting a 0.09% month-on-month decline in July.
August 31, 2018
Vietnam’s industrial sector continued expanding at a strong pace in August, with output expanding 13.4% year-on-year, slightly down from 14.3% in July.
August 1, 2018
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector lost pace in July, as reflected by a drop in the Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported by IHS Markit, which fell from 55.7 in June to 54.9.
July 31, 2018
Vietnam’s industrial sector grew at a strong pace of 14.3% in annual terms in July, up from a 12.3% year-on-year expansion in June. A breakdown of the data shows an improved performance by the mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and electricity supply sectors.