Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

The economy lost some ground in the first quarter of the year, weighed on by slower growth across all sectors. Most notable was the slowdown in service sector activity, which was likely hindered by fewer tourist arrivals in the quarter, while the agricultural sector also weakened. Moreover, merchandise export growth dipped in Q1, partly due to falling smartphone shipments. On a brighter note, the industrial sector held up well, while FDI remained robust, with newly established businesses increasing at the fastest rate in five years; this could be connected to firms shifting production out of China amid the prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The outlook for 2019 remains favorable. Household spending will remain brisk amid stable inflation and rising incomes, while sustained tourism should support the service sector. Moreover, industrial output, FDI and exports should continue to power growth. Risks from a larger-than-expected Chinese or global slowdown loom over the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy expanding 6.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2020.

Vietnam Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)89.890.791.792.793.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,8932,0292,0332,1102,355
GDP (USD bn)170184186196221
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.46.06.76.26.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.26.19.37.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.39.39.49.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.97.610.07.39.4
Unemployment Rate3.63.43.43.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.6-6.3-6.3-5.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.855.057.059.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.917.716.218.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.01.80.64.72.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.64.10.62.73.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.33.3-0.3-0.52.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.006.506.506.506.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21,09521,38822,48522,77122,710
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,02921,19821,92922,37022,716
Current Account (% of GDP)4.65.10.34.62.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.79.40.69.06.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.40.8-4.12.12.9
Exports (USD billion)133150162177215
Imports (USD billion)133149166174212
Exports (annual variation in %)16.512.67.99.021.6
Imports (annual variation in %)18.212.311.35.021.4
International Reserves (USD)25.934.228.336.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)38.539.341.744.5-  

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Vietnam Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.76-0.13 %May 13
Exchange Rate23,3290.01 %May 13
Stock Market9590.15 %May 13

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