Vietnam Economic Outlook
July 17, 2018The economy maintained a stellar stride in H1, albeit losing steam slightly from the growth rate recorded in the first three months of the year. Robust exports again led to a strong expansion in the manufacturing sector in the first half of the year. Moreover, retail sales grew at a double-digit rate in the second quarter, despite higher inflation stemming from a slide in the dong amid a broader sell-off in emerging market currencies due to rising rates in the U.S. In H1 overall, foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to surge, as more companies seek to diversify out of China. Recent government data showed that FDI in the first six months already surpassed the total influx in 2017. That said, the Vietnamese stock market has been characterized by volatility recently, with a huge outflow of hot money, largely owing to mounting trade war fears.
Vietnam Economic GrowthAnother year of stellar growth is expected, thanks to continued robust demand for manufacturing exports and an ongoing surge in FDI inflows that should support export-oriented industries. Rising household incomes and an expansion in private credit should help keep private consumption growth robust. That said, the rapid surge in credit could pose risks to financial stability in the medium-term, although the government’s restricted lending to less productive industries should help mitigate those risks. Headwinds also stem from negative spillover effects arising from escalating global trade tensions. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.7% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.6% in 2019.
Vietnam Economy Data
5 years of Vietnam economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.85||-0.13 %||Jul 17|
|Exchange Rate||23,051||0.01 %||Jul 17|
|Stock Market||921||0.15 %||Jul 17|
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Vietnam Economic News
July 2, 2018
The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported by IHS Markit shot up to 55.7 in June from 53.9 in May and was one of the highest readings since the survey began in March 2011.
June 29, 2018
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, consumer prices rose 0.61% over the previous month in June, which marked a slightly bigger increase than the 0.55% month-on-month rise in May.
June 29, 2018
Vietnam’s industrial sector grew again at a robust pace in June, with growth of the sector accelerating to 12.3% in annual terms from 7.1% in May. Looking at a breakdown of the data, two out of the four sectors showed an improved performance, while the other two sectors deteriorated.
June 29, 2018
The economy expanded 7.1% over the same period of the previous year in the January–June period, slightly down from the 7.5% expansion recorded in January–March, as growth in the second quarter decelerated to 6.8%.
June 1, 2018
The Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported by IHS Markit climbed to a 13-month high of 53.9 in May, up from 52.7 in April.