Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

September 21, 2021

After GDP growth accelerated in the second quarter, conditions appear less encouraging in Q3. Industrial output slumped at the fastest rate in over a year in August as the manufacturing sector fell deeper into contraction after July’s fall. Moreover, exports shrank at the sharpest pace since May 2020, in a further sign of struggling domestic production. This came against the background of a significant spike in Covid-19 cases from early July, with daily infections remaining close to record levels in mid-September. In response, authorities extended social distancing and stay-at-home measures through to the end of September for outbreak epicenters such as Ho Chi Minh City and the surrounding areas. Moreover, while vaccination efforts have accelerated during the summer months, the country’s inoculation campaign still lags behind the majority of regional peers.

Vietnam Economic Growth

GDP is projected to grow at one of the fastest paces in the region this year, before accelerating further in 2022. A continued uptrend in consumer and capital spending, combined with a robust external sector, should drive growth higher next year, although much depends on the evolution of the pandemic both domestically and abroad. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 5.3% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Vietnam Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)91.792.793.694.695.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,0852,1722,3532,5452,722
GDP (USD bn)191201220241260
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.87.17.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.37.37.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)9.49.910.28.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.87.59.410.29.1
Unemployment Rate2.32.32.22.22.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-3.7-1.2-3.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.063.761.458.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.218.415.012.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.64.72.63.55.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.62.73.53.62.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.62.83.11.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.256.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22,48522,77122,71023,19523,173
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,92922,37022,71623,02523,228
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.10.3-0.72.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.00.6-1.65.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.411.010.816.545.4
Exports (USD billion)162177215244226
Imports (USD billion)155166204227181
Exports (annual variation in %)7.99.021.813.3-7.3
Imports (annual variation in %)12.07.023.411.2-20.5
International Reserves (USD)28.336.549.155.578.3
External Debt (% of GDP)40.742.647.244.9-  

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Vietnam Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.38-0.13 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate23,1730.01 %Jan 01

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