Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

In Q2, the economy likely maintained most of Q1’s momentum. Industrial activity continued improving in April–May in annual terms. In particular, manufacturing growth soared to a 13-month high in May: Looser pandemic restrictions, growth in new orders and higher staffing levels more than offset supply shocks due to the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Retail sales growth in April–May also rebounded from Q1’s contraction. Retail sales were likely boosted by the removal of Covid-19 restrictions and an invigorated tourism sector, with international arrivals skyrocketing 1,184% in annual terms in May. In other news, Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh said in late May that growth may undershoot the government’s 6.0–6.5% target this year, due to an expected slowdown in global demand and the government’s reluctance to boost expenditure.

Vietnam Economic Growth

This year, the economy should grow at the second-highest rate in the region and notably faster than in 2021. The release of pent-up consumer and capital spending will fuel activity, aided by the external sector and the government’s post-Covid-19 recovery and development program. That said, elevated commodity prices and further lockdowns in China cloud the outlook. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 6.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.9% in 2023.

Vietnam Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)91.792.793.694.695.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,0852,1722,3532,5452,722
GDP (USD bn)191201220241260
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.87.17.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.37.37.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)9.49.910.28.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.87.59.410.29.1
Unemployment Rate2.32.32.22.22.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-3.7-1.2-3.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.063.761.458.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.218.415.012.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.64.72.63.55.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.62.73.53.62.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.62.83.11.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.256.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22,48522,77122,71023,19523,173
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,92922,37022,71623,02523,228
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.10.3-0.72.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.00.6-1.65.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.411.010.816.545.4
Exports (USD billion)162177215244226
Imports (USD billion)155166204227181
Exports (annual variation in %)7.99.021.813.3-7.3
Imports (annual variation in %)12.07.023.411.2-20.5
International Reserves (USD)28.336.549.155.578.3
External Debt (% of GDP)40.742.647.244.9-  

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Vietnam Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.38-0.13 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate23,1730.01 %Jan 01

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