Vietnam Economic Outlook
February 20, 2018Last year’s notable growth momentum appears to have spilled over into 2018. In January, industrial production soared, owing to an expansion across all sub-sectors and a favorable base effect. Retail sales also climbed in the month, albeit at a slightly slower pace, likely owing to a seasonally-induced moderation in credit growth. A surge in private sector credit, under the mandate of the State Bank of Vietnam, has propped up private consumption and in turn fueled a strong retail sector. Foreign direct investment (FDI)—one of the key drivers of the economy’s stellar growth trajectory—accelerated again by double-digit figures, with most overseas funds flowing into labor-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing and processing industries. The external sector also contributed to growth in January. Exports surged two-fold year-on-year in the month compared to December. Although imports jumped by more, the total value of exports exceeded imports, thus swinging the trade balance to surplus.
Vietnam Economic GrowthGrowth is set to remain robust this year, thanks to buoyant exports and high FDI levels supporting export-oriented industries. Solid domestic demand, shored up by steeply rising private sector credit, and thriving tourism activity should also bolster growth. However, the scale of the credit boom is raising concerns that a 2011-style banking crisis could unfold. A sizeable number of non-performing loans have left the banking sector vulnerable to shocks. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.7% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.6% in 2019.
Vietnam Economy Data
5 years of Vietnam economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.29||-0.13 %||Feb 22|
|Exchange Rate||22,723||0.01 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||1,076||0.15 %||Feb 22|
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Vietnam Economic News
February 1, 2018
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector gained steam at the outset of January, evidenced by the Nikkei manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), reported by IHS Markit.
January 31, 2018
Industrial production soared in January, growing 20.9% over the same month of the previous year.
January 31, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.51% over the previous month in January, according to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam.
January 2, 2018
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector picked up the pace of growth in December, reflected by a higher Nikkei manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index reading, following two consecutive months of decline.
December 29, 2017
The industrial sector performed strongly in December but grew at a more moderated pace compared to the last three months, largely reflecting a broad-based slowdown but also partly due to a reduced base-effect.