Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

September 17, 2019

Available data paints a positive picture for the third quarter, despite the challenging external environment. Industrial production continued to surge in July and August, buttressed by the manufacturing sector, while retail sales rose slightly over 12% year-on-year in the same period. Less positively, African swine fever continued to decimate pig herd numbers in August, which will likely have hit the performance of the agricultural sector in the quarter. Moreover, while the external sector remains resilient, particularly compared to regional peers, escalating global trade tensions appeared to weigh on export growth in August. This comes after Vietnam clocked by far the fastest growth among large ASEAN economies in the second quarter, propelled by healthy services and industrial sectors.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The economy will continue to expand strongly for the remainder of the year, thanks to robust services and industrial output growth. However, given the economy’s open nature, growth will be hindered somewhat by weaker global momentum. Trade tensions are a source of uncertainty: While they will slow global economic growth, they could also divert more investment from China to Vietnam. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will expand 6.7% in 2019 and 6.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Vietnam Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)89.890.791.792.793.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,8932,0292,0332,1332,355
GDP (USD bn)170186191201220
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.46.06.76.26.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.26.19.37.37.4
Investment (annual variation in %)5.39.39.49.910.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.97.69.87.59.4
Unemployment Rate3.63.43.43.23.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.2-5.7-6.4-5.7-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.754.757.159.758.2
Money (annual variation in %)18.917.716.218.415.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.01.80.64.72.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.64.10.62.73.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.33.3-0.6-0.62.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.006.506.506.506.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21,09521,38822,48522,77122,710
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,02921,19821,92922,37022,716
Current Account (% of GDP)4.65.10.54.22.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.79.40.98.26.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.02.4-3.81.61.9
Exports (USD billion)132150162177215
Imports (USD billion)132148166175213
Exports (annual variation in %)15.313.87.99.021.8
Imports (annual variation in %)16.012.012.15.621.8
International Reserves (USD)25.934.228.336.549.1
External Debt (% of GDP)38.539.341.743.347.2

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Vietnam Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.14-0.13 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate23,2000.01 %Sep 04
Stock Market9780.15 %Sep 04

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