Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

August 25, 2020

After virtually flatlining in Q2, the economy appeared to gain momentum at the outset of Q3, supported by the lifting of restrictions abroad. In July, exports stabilized after plunging in Q2, while retail sales expanded at a solid pace and industrial production edged up. Less positively, the ongoing travel ban meant that there were effectively no international visitors, hurting the important tourism sector. In addition, the country has seen a second wave of coronavirus cases centered on the coastal city of Da Nang in recent weeks. While a national lockdown has not been implemented, some localized restrictions have been reinstated, which, coupled with a possible hit to consumer confidence, could hamper domestic demand somewhat in the remainder of Q3.

Vietnam Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to slow notably this year on weaker exports and fewer tourist arrivals. However, Vietnam should still be by far the strongest performer in ASEAN. Risks to the outlook stem from a possible broader reinstatement of domestic restrictions to curtail the second wave of cases, and a potentially weak recovery in external demand. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will expand 2.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.5% in 2021.

Vietnam Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)91.792.793.694.695.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,0852,1722,3532,5452,722
GDP (USD bn)191201220241260
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.87.17.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.37.37.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)9.49.910.28.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.87.59.410.29.1
Unemployment Rate2.32.32.22.22.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-3.7-1.2-3.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.063.761.458.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.218.415.012.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.64.72.63.55.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.62.73.53.62.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.62.83.11.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.256.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22,48522,77122,71023,19523,173
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,92922,37022,71623,02523,228
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.10.3-0.72.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.00.6-1.65.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.411.010.816.545.4
Exports (USD billion)162177215244226
Imports (USD billion)155166204227181
Exports (annual variation in %)7.99.021.813.3-7.3
Imports (annual variation in %)12.07.023.411.2-20.5
International Reserves (USD)28.336.549.155.578.3
External Debt (% of GDP)40.742.647.244.9-  

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Vietnam Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.38-0.13 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate23,1730.01 %Jan 01

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