Vietnam Economic Outlook
November 13, 2018Following a robust showing in the third quarter, the Vietnamese economy appears in good stead to record a solid, albeit softer, fourth quarter. Retail sales remained buoyant in October. Moreover, estimates for the 2018 winter rice harvest see this year’s yield surpassing last year’s, even though the summer-autumn harvest was lackluster. Meanwhile, export revenue should be boosted by higher prices for the grain. Industrial production growth slowed in October, but the all-important manufacturing sector continued to grow at a double-digit rate. On the political front, the Ministry of Finance released estimates for the 2019 state budget on 25 October. The budget includes a 7.2% year-on-year expenditure increase, with a sizeable chunk allocated to development investment. With revenues only set for a 7.0% increase, the fiscal deficit is thus expected to come under pressure. In addition, on 12 November, Parliament ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. With more than six countries having signed off on the agreement, it officially takes effect by the end of 2018, boding well for Vietnamese trade prospects.
Vietnam Economic GrowthThe outlook for 2019 remains extremely favorable, with growth set to be supported by strong private consumption and fixed investment. Although rising global trade protectionism is generating uncertainty, Vietnam could actually benefit from diverted FDI inflows and relocated production facilities from China. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in 2020.
Vietnam Economy Data
5 years of Vietnam economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.19||-0.13 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||23,309||0.01 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||897||0.15 %||Nov 15|
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Vietnam Economic News
November 1, 2018
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector improved in October following a notable slowdown in September.
October 30, 2018
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, consumer prices rose 0.33% over the prior month in October, down from the 0.59% increase in September.
October 30, 2018
Industrial production expanded 7.7% in annual terms in October, a solid, albeit more moderate expansion than September’s 9.1% increase.
October 1, 2018
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector experienced a notable slowdown in September, as reflected by a dive in the Nikkei Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported by IHS Markit to a 10-month low.
September 28, 2018
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, consumer prices increased 0.59% over the previous month in September, following a 0.45% month-on-month rise in August.