Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

February 19, 2019

Economic growth appears to be cooling in the first quarter of 2019, following last year’s decade-high performance. The manufacturing PMI fell at the outset of the year, with output and new business growth both slowing in January. Despite this, firms remained optimistic about the outlook for the year, suggesting the sector could prove to be resilient to the slowdown afflicting neighboring countries, which is largely due to a cooling Chinese economy and global trade tensions. Likewise, industrial production, which was an important driver of growth last year, also softened in January. On the flipside, new FDI projects and registered capital rose by over a quarter in annual terms in January, signaling FDI inflows should remain robust. Moreover, the tourism sector will also likely support growth in Q1 as suggested by healthy tourist arrivals in January.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The economy should continue to grow at a robust, albeit weaker, pace in 2019, propelled by strong FDI inflows, a burgeoning role as a manufacturing hub in the region and solid domestic demand. However, a more challenging trade environment amid persistent Sino-American trade tensions and cyclical slowdowns in the U.S. and China, could dampen export prospects. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy expanding 6.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2020.

Vietnam Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)89.890.791.792.793.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,8932,0292,0332,1102,355
GDP (USD bn)170184186196221
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.46.06.76.26.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.26.19.37.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.39.39.49.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.97.610.07.39.4
Unemployment Rate3.63.43.43.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.6-6.3-6.3-5.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.855.057.059.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.917.716.218.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.01.80.64.72.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.64.10.62.73.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.33.3-0.3-0.52.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.006.506.506.506.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21,09521,38822,48522,77122,710
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,02921,19821,92922,37022,716
Current Account (% of GDP)4.65.10.34.62.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.79.40.69.06.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.40.8-4.12.12.9
Exports (USD billion)133150162177215
Imports (USD billion)133149166174212
Exports (annual variation in %)16.512.67.99.021.6
Imports (annual variation in %)18.212.311.35.021.4
International Reserves (USD)25.934.228.336.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)38.539.341.744.5-  

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Vietnam Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.80-0.13 %Mar 11
Exchange Rate23,1990.01 %Mar 11
Stock Market9850.15 %Mar 11

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