Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

December 16, 2021

A solid rebound appears likely in Q4 after the economy slumped into a historic contraction in Q3. The manufacturing PMI inched further into expansionary territory in November—having rebounded in October following four straight months of deteriorating conditions—indicating an accelerating recovery on a demand-driven increase in production. Moreover, industrial production sprang back into growth in November, while exports grew at the fastest pace in five months in the same month. However, daily Covid-19 cases have once again risen to near-record highs, and while a rapid vaccination campaign in recent months should help limit pressures on the health service, associated domestic restrictions have been maintained in key economic centers such as Hanoi. This comes as authorities plan to ease entry restrictions for fully vaccinated international visitors from 1 January 2022 in a bid to bolster tourism in the new year.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The economy is estimated to grow at the fastest rate in the region in 2022, following this year’s projected solid expansion. Higher growth in consumer and capital spending, combined with a robust external sector, should boost activity next year. However, the threat of further outbreaks amid the spread of the Omicron variant clouds the outlook considerably. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 7.3% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.9% in 2023.

Vietnam Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)91.792.793.694.695.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,0852,1722,3532,5452,722
GDP (USD bn)191201220241260
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.87.17.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.37.37.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)9.49.910.28.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.87.59.410.29.1
Unemployment Rate2.32.32.22.22.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-3.7-1.2-3.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.063.761.458.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.218.415.012.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.64.72.63.55.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.62.73.53.62.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.62.83.11.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.256.256.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22,48522,77122,71023,19523,173
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,92922,37022,71623,02523,228
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.10.3-0.72.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.00.6-1.65.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.411.010.816.545.4
Exports (USD billion)162177215244226
Imports (USD billion)155166204227181
Exports (annual variation in %)7.99.021.813.3-7.3
Imports (annual variation in %)12.07.023.411.2-20.5
International Reserves (USD)28.336.549.155.578.3
External Debt (% of GDP)40.742.647.244.9-  

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Vietnam Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.38-0.13 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate23,1730.01 %Jan 01

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