Vietnam Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018
Available data suggests the economy remains on solid footing in the last quarter of 2018, although GDP growth is expected to ease from the third quarter’s strong showing. Manufacturing activity appears to have stayed solid in the quarter, highlighted by a pick-up in industrial production in November and the manufacturing PMI hitting an 18-year high in the same month. This was mostly thanks to surging new business inflows and output, and could also be partly due to companies’ efforts to divert supply chains and relocate factories from China amid the U.S.-China trade row. Moreover, tourist arrivals increased at a rapid pace in November, while retail sales grew robustly in the same month, boding well for private consumption. On a less positive note, the external sector showed signs of weakening in Q4, as import growth outpaced export growth in October and November, with the latter month posting a trade deficit.Vietnam Economic Growth
The economy should continue to advance at a quick clip in 2019, although slowing slightly from 2018’s robust pace. Strong fixed investment and solid consumer spending, supported by low unemployment and a growing tourism sector, should support growth. Meanwhile, greater economic integration within ASEAN and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership should buttress the external sector and boost FDI inflows. Nevertheless, a more challenging macroeconomic climate could dampen the expansion, while skilled labor shortages and a lack of infrastructure could deter companies relocating to Vietnam from China. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in 2020.Vietnam Economy Data
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Vietnam Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.94 | -0.13 % | Jan 21 |
| Exchange Rate | 23,199 | 0.01 % | Jan 21 |
| Stock Market | 911 | 0.15 % | Jan 21 |
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Vietnam Economic News
Vietnam: Manufacturing sector ends the year on high note, despite dip in manufacturing PMI in December
January 2, 2019
According to data released by Nikkei and IHS Markit, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 53.8 points in December from November’s robust 56.5-point multi-year high.
Vietnam: Industrial production surges in December
December 28, 2018
Industrial production grew 11.4% over the same month a year prior in December, gaining steam from the 9.6% increase recorded in November.
Vietnam: Inflation stable in December
December 28, 2018
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, consumer prices fell 0.25% over the prior month in December, following the 0.29% decline registered in November.
Vietnam: Economic growth soars in Q4, rounding off a robust 2018
December 28, 2018
Economic momentum surged through the end of 2018 with the Vietnamese economy posting stellar 7.3% growth in annual terms in the fourth quarter, up from the revised 6.8% expansion recorded in the third quarter (previously reported: +6.9% year-on-year).
Vietnam: Manufacturing PMI rises to second highest level in survey’s history in November
December 3, 2018
According to data released by Nikkei and IHS Markit, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 56.5 points in November, up notably from the 53.9 points logged in October and marking the best result since January 2000.
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