Venezuela Retail


Venezuela: Free fall in car sales continues in July

August 7, 2014

Annual car sales tumbled 81.8% over the same month last year and only reached 1,585 units in July, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela). The reading followed the 85.9% decline recorded in June and marked the seventh consecutive month of contractions exceeding 75%.

In the 12 months up to July, car sales reached just 42,733 units, which was 63.7% lower than in the same period last year (June: -58.6% year-on-year) and marked the lowest level of units sold since records began in 1997. Car sales currently total just a fraction of the peak of 491,899 units recorded in the calendar year 2007. Extreme supply shortages due to government restrictions on both assembly plants and importers have severely hampered sales of vehicles in recent years.

Meanwhile, the government and the Central Bank continued not to deliver relevant economic data for several indicators, including inflation, the scarcity index, estimates for GDP, budget balance, balance of payments and external debt

Given the limited availability of timely data for the real sector, analysts often use car sales as a proxy for private consumption. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to decline 2.0% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. In 2015 the panel sees private consumption growth at 1.1%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Venezuela Retail Chart

Venezuela Retail July 2014

Note: Year-on-year variation and 12-month sum of domestic car sales in thousand units.
Source: Venezuelan Automobile Chamber (CAVENEZ).

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