Venezuela Retail

Venezuela

Venezuela: Car sales record softest drop in 11 months in November

December 5, 2014

Annual car sales fell 52.8% over the same month last year and reached 2,793 units in November, according to figures from the Venezuelan Automotive Chamber (CAVENEZ, Camara Automotriz de Venezuela). The reading followed the 72.4% decline recorded in October. Despite the dismal performance, which drove the indicator to register the 13th consecutive month of contractions exceeding 50%, November’s print marked the softest fall since December 2013.

In the 12 months up to November, car sales reached just 21,392 units, which was 79.5% lower than in the same period last year (October: -77.8% year-on-year) and marked the lowest number of units sold since records began in 1997. Car sales currently total just a fraction of the peak of 491,899 units recorded in calendar year 2007. Extreme supply shortages due to government restrictions on both assembly plants and importers have severely hampered sales of vehicles in recent years.

Meanwhile, the government and the Central Bank continued not to deliver relevant economic data for several indicators, including the scarcity index, inflation, GDP estimates for 2014, balance of payments and external debt.

Given the limited availability of timely data for the real sector, analysts often use car sales as a proxy for private consumption. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to decline 3.6% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month’s estimate. In 2015 the panel sees private consumption falling 1.5%, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s projection.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Venezuela Retail Chart


Venezuela Retail November 2014

Note: Year-on-year variation and 12-month sum of domestic car sales in thousand units.
Source: Venezuelan Automobile Chamber (CAVENEZ).


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