Venezuela Inflation

Venezuela

Venezuela: Inflation stays at above 60% in November

December 30, 2014

Consumer prices in November rose 4.66% over the previous month, which was below the 5.02% rise tallied in October. November’s increase mainly reflected higher prices for education as well as for food and non-alcoholic drinks. Annual inflation eased slightly from October’s 63.9% to 63.6% in November, which marked the lowest inflation rate in three months. While the Central Bank published inflation figures for the first time since September, it failed once again to deliver data for core inflation and the scarcity index.

Since November of 2013, the Central Bank of Venezuela—once believed to be one of the most reliable institutions in the country—has routinely delayed releases on economic data. According to the Central Bank’s regulations, inflation data should be published within the first 10 days of each month.

This situation has led many analysts to suspect that the government has increased its pressure on the Central Bank, which would threaten the Bank’s independence and objectivity. Analysts’ suspicions have been partially substantiated by the unusual nature of the Central Bank’s press releases, which contain a strong ideological and pro-government tone rather than that of a technical analysis.

Per its 2014 budget, the Venezuelan government expects inflation to range between 25.0% and 30.0% in 2015. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists, however, expect inflation to reach 66.3% by the end 2014, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2015, the panel sees inflation at 79.6%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Venezuela Inflation Chart


Venezuela Inflation November 2014

Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Venezuela Central Bank (BCV).


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