Venezuela Inflation Q3 2017

Venezuela

Venezuela: Inflation shows no sign of abating in Q3

July 6, 2017

Given the dearth of official data for inflation, different indicators from official and non-official sources are used as proxies to measure the evolution of price levels in the South American country. Developments throughout 2016 and 2017 suggest that the inflationary spiral has intensified enormously since the latest official inflation data from December 2015 showed that prices had grown by 180.9% annually. In particular, price pressures seem to have spiraled since the second half of 2016.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists estimate that inflation jumped from 757.6% at the end of Q1 to 813.3% at the end of Q2 2017. Large increases in the money supply, a sharp depreciation of the bolivar in the parallel market and the dysfunctional price control scheme in the country, which has caused acute shortages of consumer goods in the economy, are among the main reasons behind Venezuela’s spiraling inflation.

The opposition-controlled National Assembly started to publish their own inflation data in February as the government remains quiet on the matter. The index aims to provide reliable data on the evolution of price levels in the country. The legislative body has adopted the same methodology for calculating price levels as the Central Bank used to do and the analysis is conducted by former Bank employees. Data from June showed that consumer prices increased 21.4% month-on-month (May: +18.3% mom). In cumulative year-to-date terms, consumer prices spiked from a 128% increase in May to 176% in June.

The latest Central Bank data show that the money supply increased by 327.6% in June, up from 279.4% in May and marking the eleventh consecutive triple-digit increase. Large increases of the money supply at the start of the year partly reflect a salary hike in January and the introduction of larger denomination bills. The announcement of a 50% salary hike in June, the seventh since the start of 2016, is indicative of how soaring inflation is eroding personal disposable income.

The rapid depreciation of the bolivar traded in the parallel market from Q4 onwards and the introduction of larger denomination bills in January point to stoking price pressures. The sudden and sharp depreciation reflects a collapse in demand for the currency as economic agents try to exchange it for other currencies or assets before the bolivars they hold continue to depreciate. There are widespread reports that consumers have engaged in barter as economic transactions with hard currency have become extremely cumbersome, in another indication of the seriousness of the country’s economic meltdown.

Inflation is seen ending 2017 at 933.5%. For 2018, the panel expects inflation of 924.5%.


Author: Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, Economist

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