Uruguay GDP

Uruguay

Uruguay: GDP growth speeds up in Q1

June 16, 2015

In Q1, GDP grew 4.0% over the same quarter last year, marking an acceleration compared to the 3.3% growth recorded in Q4 2014 and representing the largest gain in five quarters. The acceleration was largely driven by a turnaround in fixed investment.

On the domestic side of the economy, total consumption expanded 2.8% in Q1, which was below the 3.6% increase recorded in Q4. Private consumption slowed from a 3.7% rise in Q4 to a 3.0% expansion in Q1. Government spending also decelerated, posting 2.1% growth in Q1 (Q4: +2.4% year-on-year). Finally, fixed investment swung from a 6.7% contraction in Q4, which had marked the lowest reading since Q4 2009, to a healthy 2.8% expansion in Q1.

Exports of goods and services expanded 5.0% in the first quarter of the year, which contrasted the mild 0.3% drop tallied in the previous quarter. Imports improved from an 8.3% contraction in Q4 to a 0.8% rise in Q1. As a result, the contribution of the external sector to overall growth fell markedly from 10.9 percentage points in Q4 to 3.3 percentage points in Q1.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison does not confirm the acceleration evidenced by annual growth figures. The economy increased 0.6% in Q1 over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, which came in below the 1.3% rise observed in Q4.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 2.9% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees economic output expanding 3.0%.


Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Uruguay GDP Chart


Uruguay GDP Q1 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Uruguay Central Bank (BCU) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.


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