Uruguay: Economy cools down in Q3
December 13, 2013
In Q3, GDP grew 3.3% over the same quarter last year. The reading marked a deceleration compared to the revised 6.0% growth rate registered in Q2 (previously reported: +5.6% year-on-year) and marked the weakest expansion since Q3 2012.
The deceleration was driven by a deterioration in both domestic and external demand. Total consumption expanded 5.2% in Q3, which was down from the 5.5% rise recorded in Q2. The deterioration in total consumption came amid slower growth in both private consumption (Q2 2013: +5.5% yoy; Q3: +5.3% yoy) and government spending (Q2: +6.1% yoy; Q3: +4.0% yoy). Fixed investment registered a significant deterioration, falling 0.7% in Q3 (Q2:+ 4.6% yoy).
Exports of goods and services deteriorated from a 10.9% expansion in Q2 to a lower 2.8% expansion in Q3, while imports accelerated to a 4.7% expansion (Q2: +2.2% yoy).
A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the deceleration suggested by annual data; the economy contracted 0.7% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 2.4% increase recorded in Q2.
The government expects the economy to expand 4.0% this year. Meanwhile, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 3.8%, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2014 the panel sees economic output expanding 3.6%, which is also unchanged over the previous month's estimate.