United States PMI

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United States: ISM manufacturing index falls to lowest level in more than six years

December 1, 2015

In November, the ISM manufacturing index came in at 48.6%, which was below the 50.1% recorded in October and marked the lowest reading since June 2009, when the U.S economy was mired in a recession. The result contrasted market expectations of 50.5%. The index has weakened for five consecutive months and is now below the 50.0% threshold, which distinguishes between contraction and expansion in the manufacturing sector, for the first time since November 2012.

The index was mainly dragged down by falling production and new orders, which reached levels not seen since 2012. Inventories also diminished while supplier delivery times were broadly unchanged. On a positive note, employment reached a four-month high.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that industrial output will increase 1.5% this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists see industrial production accelerating to a 2.4% expansion, which is also down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author:, Economist

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USA PMI November 2015

Note: Composite index in the Manufacturing Report on Business (PMI). Readings above 50% indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50% point to a contraction.
Source: Institute for Supply Management.


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