United Kingdom: Third quarter economic growth revised up
December 22, 2011
In the third quarter, GDP added a seasonally adjusted 0.6% over the previous quarter, according to a third estimate released on 22 December. The figure was revised upwards from a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth released in the previous estimate of national accounts from November. The revision confirmed that the third quarter's expansion was mainly driven by an increase in inventories. According to the ONS, growth in inventories has contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP (previously reported: +0.7 percentage points). Private consumption was flat in the third quarter, unrevised from the previous estimate, while government consumption increased 0.2% (previously estimated: +0.9% quarter-on-quarter). Fixed investment rose 1.3%, contrasting the previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction. Exports of goods and services fell 0.8% in the third quarter (previously estimated: -1.0% qoq), while imports added 0.5% (previously estimated: +0.3% qoq). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth deteriorated from minus 0.3 percentage points in the second quarter to minus 0.4 percentage points in the third. At the sector level, services were the main contributor to growth in the third quarter. Services rose 0.7% in Q3, revised up from the previously estimated 0.6%. The industrial sector added 0.2% in the third quarter (previously estimated: +0.4% qoq) and the construction sector rose 0.3% (previously estimated: -0.2% qoq). The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 1.0% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2012.