United Kingdom GDP

United Kingdom

United Kingdom: Growth in economic activity edges down in Q4

January 27, 2015

In Q4, GDP expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% over the previous quarter, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 27 January. The print slightly undershot the 0.6% increase the market had expected and came in below the 0.7% expansion observed in the previous quarter.

In the fourth quarter, construction swung from a 1.6% expansion in the third quarter to a 1.8% contraction, which marked the steepest decrease since Q2 2012. In addition, industry decreased 0.1%, which contrasted the 0.2% increase observed in the previous quarter. Conversely, growth in agriculture accelerated from a 0.5% increase in Q3 to a 1.3% rise in Q4, thus reaching the fastest growth pace since Q1 2011. In Q4, services grew 0.8% over the previous quarter, which matched Q3’s result.

In annual terms, GDP growth accelerated from 2.6% in Q3 to 2.7% in Q4, which marked the fastest increase since Q4 2007.

In its latest inflation report from November, the Bank of England projects that the economy will grow 2.9% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.6% in 2015, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. The panel sees GDP expanding 2.3% in 2016.

Author:, Senior Economist

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United Kingdom GDP Chart

United Kingdom GDP Q4 2014

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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