United Arab Emirates GDP Q4 2015

United Arab Emirates

United Arab Emirates: Growth decelerates to a five-year low in 2015 on low oil prices

February 3, 2016

Despite robust activity in the non-oil sector, the slump in global oil prices took its toll on the UAE economy. According to estimates from the Central Bank, the economy expanded 3.1% in 2015, which was below the 4.6% increase tallied in 2014. Moreover, the print represented the weakest growth since 2010.

The estimates reflect the negative impact of the poor performance in the oil sector. While oil GDP expanded 4.0% in 2014, growth in the same sector nearly halved and grew 2.2% in 2015. Despite decelerating, growth in non-oil GDP experienced a milder deceleration and expanded 3.7% (2014: +4.8%).

The Central Banks expects that weaknesses observed throughout 2015 will carry into the coming years, with expansion rates projected to be at 3.0% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points over last month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees the economy increasing 3.4%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Economic Research

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UAE GDP Annual February 2016 1

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Bank of the UAE.


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