Ukraine Inflation


Ukraine: Inflation continues on upward trend in July, approaches a six-year high

August 7, 2014

In July, consumer prices increased 0.4% over the previous month. The print was lower than the 1.0% rise registered in June. July’s print marked the softest increase in six months, and represented the second consecutive moderation since the month-on-month variation in consumer prices reached a record high in May. July’s moderation came on the back of lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, as well as for communications. In fact, the drop tallied in food and non-alcoholic beverages was the first since the political conflict started in October. Among the categories that registered price increases in July, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels tallied the strongest hikes.

Annual inflation jumped from June’s 12.0% to 12.6% in July, which marked the highest rate since November 2009. As a result of the acceleration in recent months, along with developments in the political sphere and in the foreign exchange market, inflation continues to rise further above the Central Bank’s 4.0%–6.0% target range for 2013–2014. Meanwhile, annual average variation in consumer prices increased from June’s 2.9% to 3.9% in July.

Against this backdrop, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to rise further before the end of the year and see it ending 2014 at 14.7%, which is up 2.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, the panel sees inflation easing to 7.0%.


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Ukraine Inflation Chart

Ukraine Inflation July 2014

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

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