Ukraine: Political turmoil disrupts industrial production in January
February 24, 2014
In January, industrial production declined 5.0% over the same month last year, which marked a sharp deterioration over the flat reading tallied in December (previously reported: -0.5% year-on-year). The print resulted from a sharp contraction in manufacturing and a strong deceleration in mining. Electricity and gas production also contracted in January, although less than in the previous month.
On a monthly basis, industrial production plummeted a seasonally-adjusted 16.0% in January, which contrasted December's 0.2% expansion. January's shocking drop in industrial production was driven by the political turmoil that began in November of last year and has grown worse of late. The overall trend continues to point downward, with annual average growth in industrial output inching down from December's minus 4.3% to minus 4.4% in January.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants estimate that industrial output will expand 2.1% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2015, panelists expect industrial production to accelerate to 2.9%.