Ukraine Industry


Ukraine: Industrial production tallies another double-digit contraction

June 23, 2015

In May, industrial production fell 20.7% over the same month last year, according to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The result was a slight improvement from April’s 21.7% decrease and marked the 17th consecutive month of decline amid the geopolitical tensions in the country. Significant falls were recorded in manufacturing, mining and quarrying, as well as in electricity, steam, gas and air conditioning.

The ongoing crisis between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatist groups continues to have a large negative impact on industry, which is already weak. Large contractions were recorded in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukraine’s industrial heartland and where the conflict has been centered. Industrial output in May plummeted 86.0% annually in Luhansk and 45.6% in Donetsk.

On a monthly basis, industrial production fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% in May, which was an improvement over April’s 2.0% fall. The annual average variation in industrial output continued to fall, decreasing from minus 15.6% in April to minus 17.2% in May.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants’ project that industrial output will contract 3.5% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect industrial production to rise 3.4%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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