Ukraine Industry February 2016

Ukraine

Ukraine: Industrial production posts growth in February for first time in over three years

March 25, 2016

In February, industrial production recorded the first growth since July 2012, rising 7.6% over the same month last year, according to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The result notably contrasted January’s 1.7% decrease. Growth was broad-based, with expansions tallied in manufacturing, mining and quarrying, as well as in electricity, steam, gas and air conditioning.

The ongoing crisis between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatist groups has had a large negative impact on industry over the past year. The conflict has been centered in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukraine’s industrial heartland, which had been plagued with steep contractions for the majority of the conflict. However, industrial production expanded significantly in Luhansk and Donetsk in February, although largely due to the low base from last year.

On a monthly basis, industrial production expanded a seasonally-adjusted 8.2% in February, which contrasted January’s 1.7% decrease. The annual average variation in industrial output in February improved from minus 11.2% to minus 8.7%, continuing on an upward trend.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants’ project that industrial output will grow 2.2% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect industrial production to rise 3.9%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Ukraine Industry February 2016

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics calculations.


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