Ukraine Industry June 2016


Ukraine: Industrial production falls in June

July 26, 2016

Industrial production returned to contraction in June, ending a four-month sequence of growth in Ukraine’s battered economy. According to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, industrial production fell 3.4% over the same month last year. The result notably contrasted May’s 0.2% expansion and marked the worst figure in seven months. The fall was driven by declines in manufacturing production as well as in mining and quarrying output.

Looking at the regions, the recovery in the eastern areas of Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukraine’s industrial heartland, lost momentum in June and both regions tallied falling output. The conflict between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatist groups, caused industrial production to plummet by over 10% in 2015, however, in the first half of 2016 data had indicated a turnaround, although largely due to the low base effect from last year.

On a monthly basis, industrial production contracted a seasonally-adjusted 2.1% in June, which followed May’s 3.7% contraction. Despite the annual fall, the overall trend continued to improve and annual average variation in industrial output jumped May’s minus 3.0% to minus 1.8% in June.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants’ project that industrial output will grow 2.5% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect industrial production to rise 4.0%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Lead Economist

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Ukraine Industry Chart

Ukraine Industry June 2016

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics calculations.

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