Ukraine Industry February 2017


Ukraine: Industrial output plummets in February amid economic blockade

March 28, 2017

Ukraine’s revival in industrial activity seen in the past months sharply reversed course in February. According to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, industrial production plunged 4.6% annually, the worst result in nearly a year (January: +5.6% year-on-year).

The result came on the back of sharp drops in mining and manufacturing output, which have been hurt by a trade halt with the rebel-held regions of the country. The blockade has halted supplies of thermal coal for power to factories inside the government-held areas of the country, while Russian-backed rebels have seized over 40 Ukrainian companies located in their territory.

The trend sharply reversed course in February, after following an upward path in previous months. Annual average growth in industrial output fell from January’s 3.4% to 2.3%.

Sequential data suggested a more mixed picture for industrial production. In February, output fell a seasonally-adjusted 2.2% over the previous month, an improvement from January’s sharp 17.5% drop.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants are still taking the latest political and economic developments into account and project that industrial output will grow 3.2% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists expect industrial production to rise 3.9%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Lead Economist

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Ukraine Industry Chart

Ukraine Industry February 2017 0

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics calculations.

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