Ukraine Industry October 2016

Ukraine

Ukraine: Industrial output decelerates in October

November 25, 2016

Industrial production in Ukraine lost steam in October. According to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, industrial production rose 0.8% annually, which was below the 2.0% expansion recorded in September. Mining and quarrying output contracted, weighing on industrial production. The trend continued to improve in October and hit a four-year high. Annual average growth in industrial output rose from September’s 0.5% to 0.9%.

Looking at the regions, the recovery in the eastern area of Luhansk continued and output grew at a double-digit pace. However, production in Donetsk fell for the second consecutive month. Donetsk and Luhansk are Ukraine’s industrial heartland and have been at the center of the conflict between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatist groups.

Sequential data suggested a brighter picture for industrial production. In October, output rose a seasonally-adjusted 5.7%, which followed the 4.4% expansion in September.

Following a substantial contraction in 2015, analysts expect Ukraine’s industrial production to recover part of the lost ground this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants’ project that industrial output will grow 2.1% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect industrial production to rise 3.1%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s projection.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Ukraine Industry October 2016

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics calculations.


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