Ukraine Industry March 2017


Ukraine: Industrial output contracts in March amid economic blockade

May 2, 2017

Ukraine’s revival in industrial activity seen at the end of 2016 sharply reversed course in recent months. According to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, industrial production plunged 2.7% annually in March, which followed February’s sharp 4.6% fall.

The result came on the back of contractions in mining and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. However, manufacturing output rebounded after a notable contraction in February. The recent downturn in industrial output has been largely caused by a trade halt with the rebel-held eastern regions of the country. Industrial production fell over 20% in Donetsk and nearly 50% in Luhansk in March.

The trend deteriorated further in March, after reversing course in February. Annual average growth in industrial output fell from February’s 2.3% to 1.6%.

Sequential data suggested a more mixed picture for industrial production. In February, output fell a seasonally-adjusted 2.2% over the previous month, an improvement from January’s sharp 17.5% drop.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants project that industrial output will grow 1.9% in 2017, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists expect industrial production to rise 3.5%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Ukraine Industry Chart

Ukraine Industry March 2017

Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics calculations.

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