Ukraine GDP


Ukraine: Revised Q4 GDP contraction slightly better than preliminary result

March 20, 2015

According to official data released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP contracted 14.8% in Q4 over the same period of the previous year, which was less than the previously released estimate of a 15.2% decrease. However, the contraction still represented a notable deterioration from Q3’s revised 5.5% decrease (previously reported: -5.3% year-on-year). Ukraine has entered a downward economic spiral as a result of the military conflict and political instability in the east of the country.

The drastic deterioration was driven by a worsening of the external sector combined with still weak domestic demand. Private consumption fell 13.6% annually in Q4, which was slightly better than Q3’s 15.5% decline. Fixed investment plummeted 26.2%, which followed Q3’s 26.7% decrease. In contrast, government consumption swung from a 0.5% contraction in Q3 to a 3.5% expansion in Q4.

On the external front, exports tumbled 31.0% in the fourth quarter (Q3: -16.8% yoy) and imports plummeted 29.0% (Q3: -31.9% yoy). As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth fell from plus 11.3 percentage points in Q3 to plus 4.9 percentage points in Q4.

FocusEconomics participants see the economy contracting 6.4% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect that the economy will rebound to grow 0.4%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Ukraine GDP Chart

Ukraine GDP Q4 2014 0

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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