Ukraine: Revised Q3 GDP contraction worse than preliminary result
December 19, 2014
According to official data released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP contracted 5.3% in Q3 over the same period last year, which was worse than the previously released estimate of a 5.1% decrease. In addition, the contraction was greater than Q2’s 4.6% decrease. The announcement cements Ukraine’s ongoing downward economic spiral as the military conflict and political instability in the east of the country has had a devastating impact on the country’s economy.
The result was driven by falling domestic demand. Fixed investment plummeted 29.9% year-on-year in Q3 (Q2: -18.5% year-on-year). Private consumption contracted 13.2%, which was a greater contraction than Q2’s 2.3% fall. In addition, government consumption swung from a 6.9% expansion in Q2 to a 0.8% decrease in Q3.
On the external front, exports contracted 19.3% in the third quarter (Q2: -7.4% yoy) and imports plummeted 32.2% (Q2: -11.3% yoy). As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth improved, rising to plus 10.1 percentage points in Q3 from Q2’s plus 2.8 percentage points.