Ukraine GDP

Ukraine

Ukraine: Revised Q3 GDP contraction worse than preliminary result

December 19, 2014

According to official data released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP contracted 5.3% in Q3 over the same period last year, which was worse than the previously released estimate of a 5.1% decrease. In addition, the contraction was greater than Q2’s 4.6% decrease. The announcement cements Ukraine’s ongoing downward economic spiral as the military conflict and political instability in the east of the country has had a devastating impact on the country’s economy.

The result was driven by falling domestic demand. Fixed investment plummeted 29.9% year-on-year in Q3 (Q2: -18.5% year-on-year). Private consumption contracted 13.2%, which was a greater contraction than Q2’s 2.3% fall. In addition, government consumption swung from a 6.9% expansion in Q2 to a 0.8% decrease in Q3.

On the external front, exports contracted 19.3% in the third quarter (Q2: -7.4% yoy) and imports plummeted 32.2% (Q2: -11.3% yoy). As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth improved, rising to plus 10.1 percentage points in Q3 from Q2’s plus 2.8 percentage points.

FocusEconomics participants see the economy contracting 6.4% in 2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect that the economy will rebound to grow 0.4%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Ukraine GDP Chart


Ukraine GDP Q3 2014 0

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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