Ukraine: Revised Q1 GDP contraction slightly better than preliminary result
June 19, 2015
According to official data released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP contracted 17.2% in Q1 over the same period of the previous year, which was less than the previously released estimate of a 17.6% decrease. In addition, the contraction still represented a notable deterioration from Q4’s 14.8% decrease and represents the worst result since Q2 2009. Ukraine has entered a downward economic spiral as a result of the military conflict and political instability in the east of the country.
The large contraction was driven by a worsening of the external sector combined with shrinking domestic demand. Private consumption fell 20.7% annually in Q1, which was a larger contraction than Q4’s 13.6% decline. Fixed investment plummeted 25.1%, which followed Q4’s 26.2% decrease. In contrast, government consumption recorded the only expansion, growing 5.0% in Q1, which was up from the 3.5% increase in Q4.
On the external front, exports tumbled 26.2% in the first quarter (Q4: -31.0% yoy) and imports plummeted 20.1% (Q4: -29.0% yoy). As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth swung from plus 4.9 percentage points in Q4 to minus 0.6 percentage points in Q1.