Ukraine GDP

Ukraine

Ukraine: Revised Q1 GDP contraction slightly better than preliminary result

June 19, 2015

According to official data released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP contracted 17.2% in Q1 over the same period of the previous year, which was less than the previously released estimate of a 17.6% decrease. In addition, the contraction still represented a notable deterioration from Q4’s 14.8% decrease and represents the worst result since Q2 2009. Ukraine has entered a downward economic spiral as a result of the military conflict and political instability in the east of the country.

The large contraction was driven by a worsening of the external sector combined with shrinking domestic demand. Private consumption fell 20.7% annually in Q1, which was a larger contraction than Q4’s 13.6% decline. Fixed investment plummeted 25.1%, which followed Q4’s 26.2% decrease. In contrast, government consumption recorded the only expansion, growing 5.0% in Q1, which was up from the 3.5% increase in Q4.

On the external front, exports tumbled 26.2% in the first quarter (Q4: -31.0% yoy) and imports plummeted 20.1% (Q4: -29.0% yoy). As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth swung from plus 4.9 percentage points in Q4 to minus 0.6 percentage points in Q1.

FocusEconomics participants see the economy contracting 7.4% in 2015, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect that the economy will rebound to grow 1.8%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Ukraine GDP Q1 2015

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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