Ukraine GDP Q1 2017


Ukraine: Recovery dampens in Q1

May 31, 2017

Ukraine’s recovery hit a roadblock at the beginning of 2017, as the economic blockade with rebel-held areas caused major disruptions in economic activity. According to a preliminary estimate released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP increased 2.4% over the same period last year, which was a notable deterioration from the 4.8% growth recorded in Q4. Q4’s result had marked the fastest pace of growth since Q4 2011.

Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, the slowdown was likely driven by dampened industrial production due to the blockade. In addition, private consumption likely remained lackluster due to austerity measures, although easing monetary conditions and lower inflation are providing some respite.

FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 2.2% in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists expect the economy to accelerate to a 3.0% expansion.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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