Ukraine: Preliminary estimate shows GDP growth reaching two-year high in Q4
January 30, 2014
In the fourth quarter of 2013, GDP expanded 3.7% over the same period of the previous year according to a preliminary estimate the National Statistics Institute released on 30 January. The expansion contrasted the 1.3% fall observed in the third quarter. Moreover, the print marked the first expansion in GDP since Q2 2012 and marked the strongest expansion since Q4 2011. For the full year 2013, GDP recorded flat growth, which was slightly below the 0.4% expansion tallied in 2012.
A quarter-on-quarter comparison corroborates the expansion suggested by the annual figures, as the economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 2.4% in Q4. Thus, if more complete GDP data is in line with the preliminary estimate, Ukraine will have exited the technical recession at the end of 2013. Revised data for economic activity will be available in March.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 0.9% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's estimate. In 2015, the panel expects the economy to grow 2.2%.