Ukraine: Growth picks up in first quarter
July 5, 2011
According to revised data, GDP expanded 5.3% in the first quarter over the same period last year, which came in just a notch above the preliminary estimate of 5.2%. The print represents the strongest pace of expansion in three quarters driven by a pick up in domestic demand and sustained growth in exports. Total consumption accelerated to a 9.6% increase (Q4 2010: +7.9% year-on-year) on the back of stronger private consumption (Q4 2010: +9.0% yoy; Q1 2011: +12.7% yoy), while government consumption slowed to a paltry 0.1% increase (Q4 2010: +5.0% yoy). Meanwhile, an upward shift in inventories helped to offset a moderation in fixed investment, which dropped from a 10.6% increase in the fourth quarter to a 4.5% expansion. Imports soared from a 14.3% increase in the previous quarter to a 39.3% expansion, which further corroborates the notion of an improving domestic sector. Moreover, exports followed suit and improved markedly (Q4 2010: +4.9% yoy; Q1 2011: +19.0% yoy). The government expects overall economic growth to reach 4.5% this year and to accelerate to 6.5% next year.