Ukraine: Growth in final quarter revised up
April 7, 2011
Latest data indicate that the economy maintained the pace at the end of last year. According to revised figures, in the fourth quarter GDP grew 3.3% over the same quarter the previous year, which came in above the preliminary estimate of 3.0% released by the Statistics Committee on 15 February. The figure was virtually unchanged over the third quarter's 3.5% increase. The final quarter result benefited from sustained growth in the domestic sector along with positive developments on the external side. While imports decelerated markedly from a 20.2% year-on-year increase in the third quarter to a 14.3% expansion in the fourth quarter, exports accelerated to a 4.9% expansion (Q3: +2.6% yoy). On the domestic front, total consumption eased to 7.9% (Q3: +8.3% yoy), which was the result of a deceleration in private consumption (Q3: +9.4% yoy; Q4: +9.0% yoy) partly offset by an acceleration in government spending (Q3: +3.7% yoy; Q4: +5.0% yoy). Fixed investment decelerated somewhat, moderating from a 12.6% increase in the third quarter to a 10.6% expansion in the fourth. In addition, a downward shift in inventories also contributed to the deceleration. A quarter-on-quarter comparison does not point to a decline. In fact, the economy grew 1.0% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted terms (Q3: +0.1% quarter-on-quarter). In the full year 2010, the economy grew 4.2%, which represents only a partial recovery from the 14.8% contraction recorded a year earlier. Going forward, the government expects the economy to expand 4.5% this year and 6.5% next year.