Ukraine: GDP growth decelerates in first quarter
June 13, 2012
In the first quarter, GDP increased 2.0% over the same period last year, according to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 13 June. The figure marked the slowest pace of expansion recorded since the last quarter of 2009 and came in a notch below last month's Consensus Forecast panellists' projection of a 2.2% increase. The slowdown was mostly the result of softer growth in the domestic sector. Fixed investment moderated to a 7.6% expansion in the first quarter, which was less than half the 16.9% increase observed in the fourth quarter. Moreover, total consumption edged down to a 7.9% rise (Q4 2011: +8.1% year-on-year), as private consumption moderated to a 9.8% expansion (Q4: +12.8% yoy), which was only partially offset by a bounce in government spending (Q4: -5.7% yoy; Q1: +1.9% yoy). On the external side, exports contracted 6.8% in the first quarter, which exceeded the 5.6% contraction recorded in the preceding period. Imports swung from a 3.3% increase in the fourth quarter to a 4.3% contraction in the first quarter. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth stepped up from minus 4.1 percentage points in the fourth quarter to minus 0.9 percentage points in the first. The Central Bank expects GDP to grow between 3.0% and 4.0% this year, while the government sees economic growth at 3.9%.