Ukraine: GDP growth accelerates in second quarter
September 11, 2012
In the second quarter, GDP increased 3.0% over the same period last year, according to data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 11 September. The figure represented an acceleration over the 2.0% rise observed in the previous quarter and came in line with the preliminary flash estimate released on 27 July. The improvement was the result of faster growth in the domestic sector. Private consumption expanded 14.3% in the second quarter, well above the 9.8% rise tallied in Q1. Government spending also picked up (Q1: +1.9% year-on-year; Q2: +2.5% yoy), driving total consumption to an 11.4% increase in Q2 (Q1: +7.9% yoy). In addition, fixed investment accelerated to a 16.9% expansion in the second quarter, which more than doubled the 7.6% increase observed in the first. On the external side, exports contracted 6.8% in the second quarter, which mirrored the previous quarter's result. Imports swung from a 4.3% drop in the first quarter to a 10.8% rise in the second. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth deteriorated sharply from minus 0.9 percentage points in the first quarter to minus 8.4 percentage points in the second. The Central Bank expects GDP to grow between 3.0% and 4.0% this year. Meanwhile the government sees economic growth at 3.9% this year, before rising to 4.5% in 2013.