Ukraine GDP

Ukraine

Ukraine: GDP contracts in Q1 matching preliminary estimate

June 19, 2014

According to official data released by State Statistics Service Ukraine, GDP contracted 1.1% in Q1 over the same period last year, which was in line with the preliminary estimate released on 30 April. The figure contrasted the 3.3% rise tallied in the fourth quarter of 2013, which had marked the highest print since December 2011.

On the domestic side of the economy, investment plummeted 19.1% year-on-year in Q1 (Q4: -5.1% year-on-year), which was the sharpest contraction since Q4 2009. Private consumption decelerated; it expanded 5.7%, but fell short of the 6.8% expansion tallied in Q4. In turn, public consumption dropped 9.1% (Q4: -5.1% yoy), which marked the sharpest contraction since Q3 2011.

On the external front, exports contracted 2.0% in the first quarter (Q4: -4.1% yoy) and imports dropped 7.0% (Q4: -1.8% yoy). As a result, the net contribution of the external sector to GDP growth swung from minus 0.6 percentage points in Q4 to plus 2.7 percentage points in Q1.

FocusEconomics participants see the economy expanding 0.3% in 2014, which is down 1.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015, panelists expect that the economy will grow 1.6%.


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Ukraine GDP Q1 2014

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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