Turkey Economic Forecast

Turkey Economic Outlook

October 29, 2019

The economic downturn likely eased somewhat in the third quarter. In the first two months of Q3, the industrial sector decelerated less sharply and merchandise export growth accelerated. On the other hand, retail sales fell at a steep pace in the same period, while consumer sentiment soured in the quarter as a whole, boding ill for private consumption growth. Business confidence also worsened in the quarter, suggesting fixed investment growth eased. Against this backdrop, the government unveiled its optimistic new economic program on 30 September, setting a growth target of 5.0% for next year and thereafter, but it was largely void of concrete plans. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and market volatility came to the forefront again in mid-October after the government sent its army into northern Syria. The subsequent ceasefire saw the newly-imposed U.S. sanctions lifted, however.

Turkey Economic Growth

Turkey’s economy is expected to recover next year from this year’s recession on the back of looser monetary policy and a supportive base effect. Yet risks remain tilted to the downside on lingering geopolitical tensions and market volatility, while rebounding import growth will likely weigh on net exports. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 2.4% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and 3.2% in 2021.

Turkey Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)76.777.778.779.880.8
GDP per capita (USD)12,38612,02610,89810,80510,542
GDP (USD bn)950934858862852
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.55.26.13.27.4
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)10.13.25.44.47.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.93.05.43.76.1
Investment (annual variation in %)13.85.19.32.27.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.25.75.83.49.0
Unemployment Rate9.09.910.310.910.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.0-1.1-1.0-1.1-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.428.827.628.328.3
Money (annual variation in %)22.211.917.118.315.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.48.28.88.511.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.58.97.77.811.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.508.257.508.008.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.152.332.923.533.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.912.192.733.023.65
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.7-4.7-3.7-3.8-5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-63.6-43.6-32.2-33.1-47.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-79.9-63.6-48.1-40.9-59.0
Exports (USD billion)162169152150166
Imports (USD billion)242233200191225
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.14.4-10.0-1.210.7
Imports (annual variation in %)6.3-3.8-13.9-4.517.8
International Reserves (USD)11110792.992.184.2
External Debt (% of GDP)41.443.546.747.553.5

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Turkey Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.86-0.09 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate5.67-0.85 %Sep 04
Stock Market100,0771.41 %Sep 04

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