Turkey Economic Outlook
October 29, 2019The economic downturn likely eased somewhat in the third quarter. In the first two months of Q3, the industrial sector decelerated less sharply and merchandise export growth accelerated. On the other hand, retail sales fell at a steep pace in the same period, while consumer sentiment soured in the quarter as a whole, boding ill for private consumption growth. Business confidence also worsened in the quarter, suggesting fixed investment growth eased. Against this backdrop, the government unveiled its optimistic new economic program on 30 September, setting a growth target of 5.0% for next year and thereafter, but it was largely void of concrete plans. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and market volatility came to the forefront again in mid-October after the government sent its army into northern Syria. The subsequent ceasefire saw the newly-imposed U.S. sanctions lifted, however.
Turkey Economic GrowthTurkey’s economy is expected to recover next year from this year’s recession on the back of looser monetary policy and a supportive base effect. Yet risks remain tilted to the downside on lingering geopolitical tensions and market volatility, while rebounding import growth will likely weigh on net exports. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 2.4% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and 3.2% in 2021.
Turkey Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||14.86||-0.09 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||5.67||-0.85 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||100,077||1.41 %||Sep 04|
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Turkey Economic News
November 21, 2019
Sentiment among Turkish consumers improved in November, with the confidence index rising from 57.0 in October to 59.9.
November 14, 2019
Industrial production returned to growth for the first time in 13 months, with output expanding 3.4% year-on-year in September, swinging from the 3.6% contraction recorded in August.
November 12, 2019
The Turkish external sector recorded an above-expectations current account surplus of USD 2.5 billion, which was slightly down from August’s USD 2.7 billion surplus, but above the USD 1.9 billion surplus recorded in September last year.
November 4, 2019
Consumer prices in Turkey rose 2.00% month-on-month in October, more than doubling the 0.99% increase recorded in September.
Turkey: Government reveals ambitious economic plan, while geopolitical tensions return to center stage
October 29, 2019
On 30 September, the government published a new economic program for 2020-2022 with ambitious growth targets, amid escalating geopolitical tensions.