Turkey PMI


Turkey: Manufacturing PMI recedes slightly in December

January 2, 2015

The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 52.2 in November to 51.4 in December. Although December’s print represented a three-month low, the PMI remains firmly entrenched above the 50-threshold that separates expansion from contraction in manufacturing conditions.

December’s slight retreat mostly reflected weaker expansions in output and new orders. That said, the still-strong dynamics in the manufacturing sector prompted Turkish businesses to continue increasing their hiring, with the corresponding sub-index expanding at the fastest pace in three years. Input prices slowed to the weakest rate since May 2013. In this regard, HSBC analysts pointed out that, “the sharp fall in oil prices is pushing down output price inflation, which, in turn, should translate into lower consumer inflation. As of November, annual consumer inflation in Turkey is still high, at 9.2%, but it is likely to fall sharply in the first half of 2015, on the back of lower energy prices, a more stable currency and lower food inflation compared to 2014.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial production to expand 4.0% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Next year, the panel expects industrial output to increase 4.6%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Turkey PMI Chart

Turkey PMI December 2014

Note: HSBC Turkey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in business activity while a value below 50 points to a contraction.
Source: HSBC and Markit.

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