Turkey: Industrial production moderates sharply in October
December 9, 2013
In October, industrial production expanded a calendar-adjusted 0.7% over the same month last year. The mild increase undershot the 4.5% rise that markets had expected and represented a steep deceleration compared to the 6.5% expansion tallied in September, which had marked the strongest increase since November 2011. October's weak expansion reflects a sharp drop in mining and quarrying, as well as a soft increase in manufacturing output. Conversely, the electricity, gas and steam category recorded the strongest increase in over one year.
A month-on-month comparison corroborates the deterioration suggested by the annual figures; industrial production fell a seasonally and calendar-adjusted 3.1% in October. The result contrasted the 5.8% increase in September, which was the highest print that had been recorded since January 2007. Annual average growth in industrial output stabilized at the previous month's 2.5% in October.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial production to expand 3.8% in 2013, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. Next year, the panel expects that industrial output will increase 4.5%, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's estimate.