Turkey GDP


Turkey: Economy accelerates in Q4

March 31, 2015

In Q4, GDP rose 2.6% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was a notable improvement over the 1.9% increase recorded in Q3. The figure marked the fastest increase in three quarters. The reading came in above the 2.0% expansion the market had expected.

The result tallied in Q4 reflected an improvement in domestic demand while the external sector performed worse compared to the previous quarter. Growth in private consumption accelerated from 0.1% in Q3 to 2.4% in Q4. In addition, total investment rebounded from a 4.6% drop observed in the third quarter to a 5.5% increase, thus marking the fastest expansion in a year. Moreover, overall growth benefited from an increase in inventories.

Exports of goods and services expanded 3.4% in Q4, which was below the 7.9% increase tallied in Q3. Conversely, imports expanded 4.6%, which contrasted the 1.6% contracting observed in the previous quarter. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth fell from plus 2.4 percentage points in Q3 to minus 0.4 percentage points in Q4.

A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the acceleration suggested by the annual figures. GDP rose 0.7% over the previous quarter in seasonally- and calendar-day adjusted terms. The reading was up from the 0.5% increase observed in Q3.

The Turkish government expects the economy to expand 4.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists are less optimistic than the government and see GDP expanding 3.6% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel sees the economy accelerating to a 3.9% increase.

Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Turkey GDP Chart

Turkey GDP Q4 2014

Note: Year-on-year variation of GDP in %.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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