Turkey: Economic growth slows in Q4
April 2, 2012
In the fourth quarter, GDP rose 5.2% over the same quarter the previous year. The figure represented a deceleration compared to the 8.4% expansion recorded in the third quarter (previously reported: +8.2% year-on-year), and also undershot market expectations, which had anticipated a 5.5% rise. The slowdown in the fourth quarter was entirely caused by a moderation in the domestic sector. Private consumption rose 3.4% over the same period the previous year, more than halving the 7.8% expansion recorded in the third quarter. In addition, government spending contracted 4.3% (Q3 2011: +10.3% yoy). Finally, fixed investment decelerated sharply from a 14.6% rise in Q3 2011 to a soft 2.4% increase. Meanwhile, the net contribution from the external side of the economy improved. Exports of goods and services expanded 6.7% (Q3 2011: +10.2% yoy), while imports contracted 5.1% (Q3 2011: +6.8% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth improved from 0.5 percentage points in the third quarter to 3.2 percentage points in the fourth. A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the slowdown suggested by the annual figures, as GDP grew 0.6% over the previous quarter in seasonally and calendar-day adjusted terms, less than half the 1.3% expansion recorded in the third quarter. For the full year 2011, the economy expanded a strong 8.5%, slightly below the 9.2% growth rate registered in 2010. The government anticipates economic growth to moderate to 4.0% this year.