Turkey: Economic growth continues to slow in Q4
April 1, 2013
In the fourth quarter, GDP rose 1.4% over the same quarter the previous year. The reading represents a deceleration compared to the 1.6% expansion recorded in the third quarter and marks, in fact, the lowest growth rate recorded since Q3 2009. In addition, the figure undershot market expectations, which had anticipated a 1.9% rise. In the full year 2012, GDP expanded only 2.2%, which is a fraction of the robust 8.8% rise tallied in 2011.
The slowdown in the fourth quarter was caused by a slight deterioration in the external sector. Exports of goods and services rose 15.0%, matching the result tallied in the previous quarter. On the other hand, imports accelerated from a 2.0% increase in Q3 to a 3.2% rise in Q4. As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth fell from 3.1 percentage points in the third quarter to 2.9 percentage points in the fourth.
In the domestic sector, private consumption contracted 0.8% over the same period the year before (Q3 2012: -0.4% year-on-year), whereas government spending increased a vigorous 7.1% (Q3: +5.5% yoy). In addition, gross fixed investment fell 3.8%, broadly unchanged from the 4.2% decline recorded in the third quarter.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the slowdown suggested by annual figures, as GDP was flat over the previous quarter in seasonally and calendar-day adjusted terms, down from the 0.1% rise recorded in Q3.
The government expects the economy to expand 4.0% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists see the economy growing 4.1% this year, which is unchanged from last month. For 2014, the panel expects GDP to expand 4.8%.