Turkey: Economic growth broadly stable in Q3
December 10, 2013
GDP rose 4.4% over the same quarter last year in Q3, marking a slight deceleration compared to the 4.5% expansion recorded in Q2 (previously reported: +4.4% year-on-year). The reading overshot the 4.2% rise market analysts had expected.
The result tallied in Q3 mainly reflects a mild deterioration in domestic demand, whereas the external sector improved somewhat. Private consumption expanded 5.1% over the same period last year in Q3 (Q2: +5.6% yoy), while government spending increased a meagre 0.6% (Q2: +7.8% yoy). Conversely, gross fixed investment rose a solid 6.0% in Q3 (Q2: +4.0% yoy).
Exports of goods and services declined 2.2%, which contrasted the 0.1% increase tallied in the previous quarter and marked the sharpest decline since Q3 2009. Imports grew 6.0% in Q3, which was below the 12.1% expansion recorded in Q2. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 3.5 percentage points in Q2 to minus 2.2 percentage points in Q3.
A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the mild deceleration suggested by the annual figures. GDP expanded 0.9% over the previous quarter in seasonally and calendar-day adjusted terms, which was down from the 2.0% rise recorded in Q2.
The Turkish government expects the economy to expand 3.6% this year and 4.0% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 3.7% this year, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel sees growth steady at 3.7%, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month's estimate.